In his weekly "Data-driven VC" newsletter, Andre Retterath unveils ten predictions about the future of venture capital. Retterath highlights the VC industry's paradox: despite backing groundbreaking businesses, it has seen minimal innovation for the last several decades, only transitioning from analogue to digital tools. This stagnation, he argues, is due to limited competition and a traditionally supply-constrained market. However, changes in recent years, especially since the early 2010s, have prompted a shift towards a more balanced market, spurring innovation in VC practices. Retterath shares insights into the evolving trends and what they signify for the industry's future beyond 2024.
1. Natural selection in venture capital
The venture capital (VC) market is undergoing a significant shift. Last year witnessed a drastic drop in fundraising. According to Financial Times, in 2023 U.S. VCs raised only $67 billion, the lowest since 2017, representing a 60% decline from 2022. This downturn is expected to trigger a natural selection in the VC industry, leading to reduced headcount, firm closures, and increased mergers and acquisitions. Firms founded during the 2010-2018 market rise are particularly vulnerable due to performance pressures and insufficient exit track records.
2. The reopening of the exit window
The industry anticipates a reopening of the exit window by the end of 2024 or early 2025, following a trend observed in previous downturns. This phase is characterized by growing private market investments and a resurgence of exits and distributions. Mature companies that have managed growth during the challenging 2022-2024 period are expected to lead the charge in IPOs, leveraging their paths to sustainable growth.
3. Evolving VC models: Boutiques, mega funds, and barbell strategies
VC might be evolving into distinct models: boutique firms, mega funds, and firms adopting a barbell approach. Boutique firms, often small and nimble, have shown outperformance over larger funds. Mega funds, with substantial capital, offer consistent returns. The barbell approach combines the advantages of both, with early-stage boutique funds and later-stage growth funds. This diversification enables firms to capture a wider range of investment opportunities while maintaining strong performance.
4. Preferred deal access becomes crucial
With the increasingly competitive market, VCs are focusing on securing preferred access to deals. Innovative strategies, including fund-of-fund approaches and strategic partnerships, are being employed to gain early visibility and pre-empt follow-on funding rounds. This trend emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning and network building in securing high-potential investments.
5. The Rise of pre-emptive investment strategies
The market is seeing a shift towards pre-emptive investment strategies, where VCs invest in promising companies ahead of formal fundraising processes. This approach, driven by competitive pressures and the need to act swiftly, is expected to become more prevalent in 2024, reflecting a fundamental change in investment dynamics.
6. Disruption through data and AI
Venture capital is increasingly embracing data-driven and AI-enhanced approaches. The advent of technologies like ChatGPT has accelerated this trend, with VCs leveraging large-scale computing, extensive private company data, and advanced algorithms to inform their investment decisions. This shift is transforming traditional investment processes and strategies.
7. Increased focus on internal data engineering talent
VC firms are significantly increasing their internal engineering talent to harness the benefits of data and AI. This trend is evident from the growing number of tech-related job postings in VC firms, indicating a shift towards a more tech-centric approach in investment analysis and decision-making.
8. The emergence of investment tech
The rise of “Investment Tech” offers solutions for VC firms unable to develop in-house technology stacks. These off-the-shelf tools provide VCs with advanced capabilities in due diligence, deal sourcing and portfolio management, democratizing access to sophisticated technological resources.
9. Efficient workforce utilization
Advancements in AI and data-driven approaches are enabling VC firms to operate more efficiently, reducing the need for large teams of analysts and associates. This trend is leading to a leaner, more focused workforce, emphasizing quality decision-making and strategic deal-making.
10. The importance of reputation and branding
As the VC landscape becomes more competitive and efficient, the importance of a strong brand and reputation is increasingly recognized. Both company level and individual investor branding play a crucial role in winning competitive deals and attracting top-tier investment opportunities.
As the venture capital landscape continues to evolve, these ten predictions from Andre Retterath offer a compelling glimpse into its future. The industry, once resistant to change, is now at the forefront of innovation, embracing new models, technologies, and strategies. From the increased focus on data-driven engineering talent to the rise of pre-emptive investment strategies, these changes are reshaping how VCs operate and succeed. As the market continues to mature, these trends will likely define the next era of venture capital, impacting how investments are made and how startups are nurtured. The future of VC, as outlined by Retterath, paints a picture of an industry not just evolving, but also leading the way in technological adoption and strategic innovation.
